As Brexit bubbles away, where does that leave the Residential Property Market in the next quarter?

 

As Brexit bubbles away, where does that leave the Residential Property Market in the next quarter?

One doesn’t have to be a carnival fortune-teller or political expert (the former being more accurate) to realise that Boris will be a shoo-in candidate for Prime Minister. Top of the job list will be to trudge through a legislative obstacle course to propel a deal through Europe in three months. This is akin to squaring the proverbial circle and this herculean task will be compounded by the fact that the new – unelected – EU commissioners would hardly have had time to raid the Brussels wine cellar, nor file their bogus expenses claims.

Wisely or not, Boris has committed himself to the deadline of 31st October and there is no going back for the ‘blond bruiser’. After three years of May’s failure, he will confront a restive nation that will delight in nailing him to the masthead. While it’s possible that he’ll just do a cut and paste job of May’s withdrawal deal, kicking some of the more contentious elements down the road (i.e. the backstop), given the past obdurate record of the EU negotiators, this seems like an improbable scenario. We don’t need any more choruses of ‘Mais Non’ from them do we?

The suspicion is that he will fail – in which case; the next hurdle is to get a ‘no-deal’ Brexit through a Parliament that is implacably opposed to this notion. There is much chatter about the new words, ‘proroguing the Commons’, but this appears to be a constitutionally sensitive matter that inevitably will draw the Queen into the political arena, which she has hitherto studiously and wisely avoided.

Curry’s ‘bit on the side’

What would we do at this juncture without Edwina Curry’s ‘bit on the side’, the archetypical stud, John Major, the spectacular nonentity who saddled us with Maastricht and has now threatened a judicial review on any advice given to the Queen? Should we remind ourselves about this naïve, dreary Europhile, who as former Chancellor press-ganged Thatcher into joining the ERM (the precursor to the Euro) at the wrong rate, which caused no end of economic misery for the UK in the recession of the early 90s. Lest we forget, that the country only regained its economic mojo after the ignominious devaluation, when we came tumbling and thankfully, out of this trap. No doubt he would have foolishly pushed us into joining the Euro and the UK would be 10% smaller as an economy today.

The injustice is breathtaking since the majority of Parliament are Remainers and they will do everything possible to thwart the Brexit process which flies in the face of the Referendum result.

The parasitic class in Westminster and the deeply (un)civil service, need to be reminded that democracy begins and ends with the Electorate and Parliament is simply there to implement legislation drawn from the electoral process and certainly should not to obstruct the will of the people.

After the 2016 Referendum, the majority of the UK voters decided to leave the Customs Union, Single Market, European Courts of Justice and, to be honest, the purist form of this direction of travel, is a ‘No-Deal’ Brexit. It is true that common sense dictates that, ideally, this should be embodied in a bilateral agreement with the EU, if at all possible.

It is obviously far better to leave the EU with a deal, but any attempts to organise another Referendum (with a Remain option) before the first one has been implemented, is seditious.

If this second Referendum was a choice between leaving with a deal or no-deal only, then this would be an acceptable refinement but, most proponents of this, have other Machiavellian desires to exploit the political paralysis by revoking Article 50 and remaining shackled to the European caliphate. Any undermining of democracy that is entailed by this, to them, is an acceptable price to be paid.

Poisoned chalice

This poisoned chalice would be a nightmare to any newly-coronated Prime Minister. Boris will start with the usual honeymoon period but inescapably, he will need to deliver Brexit (in part at least) in order to neutralise the Brexit Party and before he would be able to go to the Country for a mandate, by way of an election, which could be within six months.

If he tried to do this without having delivered a form of Brexit beforehand, the electorate will make their opinions known and annihilate the Tories at the polls, splitting its vote with the Brexit Party. Corbyn wouldn’t even need the SNP in coalition to cycle straight to Number 10, in order to start turning the world’s 6th biggest economy into a Venezuelan heap.

Brexit bounce

Now that we have discussed the obstacles allow me to describe a scenario where there could be a Brexit bounce.

Boris either gets a dog-breakfast deal with the EU, or miraculously steers a no-deal Brexit through the chicane of the parliamentary process. He then goes on a shopping spree in his first emergency Budget, which could include massive farming and industrial subsidies, lower Corporation Tax, increased thresholds on higher tax, and lower Stamp Duty. This shot of economic caffeine could bring about a much needed, mini boom, which could include a boost to the residential property sector and before we look around, we may have a Singapore-styled tax haven economy. And what the dickens is wrong with this?

Naturellement, the ‘foie gras socialists’ at the EU would throw up their well-manicured hands in horror at the prospect of UK Corporation Tax of circa 13%, versus their own punitive rate of 35%. Quelle horreur, we cannot have the peasants trying to better themselves, can we? An inevitably low level of Sterling will be an open invite to investors from all parts of the world, giving them the perfect excuse to set up their Head Offices in the UK or in the greatest city on earth, London. Before you can say Jack Robinson, the trickle-down effect would become a flood and soon we could all bathe in this largesse. Halleluiah.

Crucial to reduce Stamp Duty

All those benefits notwithstanding, it’s crucial to reduce Stamp Duty, which would breathe life into the comatose residential property market. This onerous idiocy (thank you, George Osborne) has been asphyxiating the sector for the last five years, driving it into a premature recession, with prices down by 35% and transactions by 60%.

You never know, it could be the darkness before daybreak, for this country.

For all his buffoonery, Boris does appeal to a large swathe of the electorate, who are disillusioned with the faux-conservative mediocrity of the past administration. He does transcend demographic boundaries, as long as he can keep a lid on his comedic, extravagant language and put his substantial weight behind his optimistic pledges.

Canvassing in poetry is one thing, ruling in prose is quite another and after all, there is only one over-riding task that needs delivering and that is Brexit.