Californian oligarchs are the new uber clients buying in London today… who would have ‘thunk’ it?

At Glentree we have traversed the Residential Property Market from the dark days of 1976 to the present.

We have presided over the transformation of London from a souvenir city, rich in culture and heritage (as Paris is today), into a financial colossus and Brexit and the Non-Dom fiscal changes will not serve to diminish this trend. Continue reading

Prime Minister, note to oneself, if you enter a stupid contest… don’t try and come first

What on earth is our esteemed, well intentioned, perfectly decent, Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, up to now…, bless him?  Everyone knows that he was always a better ‘No 2 man’ and was elevated, by circumstance, to the top job, perhaps beyond his station and in a General Electoral context was always destined to generate galloping indifference from the Electorate.   Why on earth did he not take the good advice from his electioneering guru, Isaac Levido and wait for an autumn Election?

It does appear that instead the PM surrounds himself with a cabal of ‘wet behind the ears’ border line Millennials, who have convinced him to ‘go for broke’ on July 4th and in doing so, attempt to ambush the Labour Party with this surprise attack!

Goliath likely to murder David

Sorry to disappoint you Prime Minister, but this will never be a ‘D-Day moment’ for you, i.e., catching the ‘Jerry’s napping’, since I have to tell you that the Labour Party are well funded now and certainly up for the fight.

Unfortunately, by the looks of the persistent poll deficit, Goliath this time, is going to murder David.

Common sense dictates they should have waited for the following good news to materialise over the next four to five months, in the expectant hope that the poll deficit closes.

  • At present the average working person is enjoying the highest ‘real growth’ in wages for the last 15-20 years
  • UK growth may well increase over the next two quarters, giving us a lead amongst the G7 countries
  • Inflation is at last moving towards the 2% optimal target figure
  • The IMF are predicting three drops in interest rates over the summer which would be good news for mortgages and the property market
  • Who knows, the constipated Rwandan project may well get traction at last, sending a message down the line (as in Ireland) that a life-threatening treacherous boat trip across the Chanel from France will not end up in Utopian UK, but instead perhaps a makeshift Rwandan motel
  • There was time for one more Budget in the autumn, which could have included some pupil dilating ‘true conservative’ tax give aways i.e., National Insurance, Inheritance Tax etc.

What planet is the government on?

I’m not sure what planet the government is on these days, but even a nudnik can work out that this is all good news and may well soften the resistance of former Tory voters to come back to the fold.

There is a good proportion of undecided voters who are waiting for the manifestos to be disclosed and let’s be real here, Sir Keir Starmer is no electoral ‘rock star’ and his blatant lack of efficacious policies will be all too clear as the Election campaign grinds on.

It is nauseating to hear the Labour Party’s repetitive class warfare soundbites with regard to non-doms and VAT on schools, supposedly in a vain attempt to help to fund the recruitment of doctors and nurses.

All this is fatuous balderdash since these mindless initiatives may not raise any money whatsoever for the Exchequer, but inevitably will start a stampede for the exit door amongst international investors and create huge uncertainty amongst middle class parents whilst deciding the future of their children’s education.

One would have thought that these issues are so important, as a part of the national treasure and if imposed, would represent a triumph of petty politics over pragmatism.

If conscription of young people into community projects or the armed forces is Mr. Sunak’s idea of a flagship policy, I’m afraid we’re ‘all at sea’.  I questioned the wisdom of the anti-smoking ban at the last Tory conference which had no traction and was soporific at best.

Where are the post Brexit freedoms?

As far as the government is concerned, where are the new-found freedoms promised from the post Brexit era, such as lower Corporation Tax, VAT reclaim and industrial scale deregulation, that this country so thirsts for?

I’m sorry to dash the hopes of aspiring businesspeople, who may remember the ‘splash the cash’ antics of the old Tony Blair Labour Party. With government budget deficit now at an eyewatering £120billion, the new regime under Chancellor in waiting, Rachel Reeves, will be hamstrung by their own rhetoric as all government spending will have to be costed and therefore there will be no wriggle room, unless they increase taxes.

I think, The Residential Property Market will trundle along in the expectant hope that mortgage rates will shortly come down further, although the private landlords, who are becoming an extinct breed today, are increasingly worried about the fear of rent caps and the threat of new powers for the tenants, which could render the rental investment world a more onerous place than even at present.

I am pleased to comment that in the lower to middle brackets of the property markets business seems to be continuing unabated. However, it is the higher end that I am concerned about with far fewer enquiries in this sector.

Bring back Boris!

Although Boris Johnson was no saint and was the architect of his own misfortune, I fear that the Tories will rue the day that they ignominiously banished him from power. Despite the unforgivable ‘party gate’ shenanigans, the poll deficit for the Party was only 6% then, which was a perfectly manageable gap but now, after the antics of Truss and Sunak, it is a consistent 20%+ which, in all likelihood, is a bridge too far.

I’m trying to get a lather up to vote on July 4th, but at the moment, for me and perhaps others, the choice is similar to that of two types of root canal treatment, and which one would I prefer?

Answers on a postcard!

Where is the UK’s Residential Property Market going in 2024?

Market commentary must be so confusing for ‘the man on the Clapham
omnibus’. If I’m confused, and I have been in the business for fifty years, what
hope is there for the un-initiated?

It is good news indeed that the overall inflation rate has come down to 2.3%
(announced May 22nd) and the IMF are predicting three interest rate reductions,
which means that the mortgage interest rate trend will be moving south, and this
is good news for the Residential Property Market. Continue reading