Well, ‘the lady is for turning’ after all!
Following today’s announcement that there will be a June Election, undoubtedly there will be a degree of uncertainty until the results are fully known. However, it is far preferable to have this turmoil now, than for instance ‘further down the track’ when she is trying to ‘close down’ on a difficult Brexit negotiation with our awkward European partners in 2019.
Clearly, May and her ‘merry men’ need to have the authority of a tangible parliamentary majority, in order to combat the antagonistic forces in Brussels, so that she can negotiate as hard or soft a Brexit deal with them, as she is able to do.
In the alternative, if she had ‘trundled along’ with her existing, slender majority, she could have been held to ransom by certain disaffected ‘re-moaners’ in her party, as well as those in the opposition. This would have been exacerbated by the mischievous Europhiles in the Lords, which is another complication she did not need. Under present arrangements, delivering a Brexit deal to Parliament would be all the more complicated, which is quite separate from the tortuous process of dealing with the European negotiators, who will be trying not to reward the UK for the temerity of voting to leave the discredited EU club.
I am not sure why she didn’t wait until next year for the boundary changes to be implemented, which would have delivered, in themselves, a 20-seat political advantage over the Labour Party.
Despite the perils of being too triumphal, It is clearly evident that the hapless ‘Worsel Gummage’ Mr. Corbyn, will lose the Election, ignominiously, and undoubtedly there will be a routing of the Left Wing after this, taking with him the ‘twirling eyed’ Diane Abbott, the portly, Emily Thornberry and the vertically challenged, John McDonnell and perhaps not a moment too soon. They have single handedly destroyed the Labour Party’s electoral aspirations that the now discredited Tony Blair, in the 90s, fought so hard to establish and with great aplomb at the time.
No doubt Hilary Benn and his centre left cohorts, will have a chance to lead the Labour Party after the predictable defeat that it will suffer in June and only until 2022 will there be a chance at gaining real power or perhaps 2027 before there is any real prospect of being in government. Let us put it this way, NASA has taken its time to put a man on Mars and this event will take place long before there is a Labour Prime Minister in this country again.
May at least will have a chance to re-write the manifesto promises which will be very different from those before the election in 2015 without ‘the tax locks’. This will give both her and Chancellor Hammond much more flexibility in terms of their attempts to reduce the deficit and to be able to meet their fiscal disciplines.
How will this affect the Property Market in London and the UK?
As is usual before a momentous event there will be a great deal of ‘wall sitting’ as people will forestall making decisions to move home, until after the results are known following the Election. In truth, I am not sure it will make any difference whatsoever for the long term outcome of residential property and underlying values, but there could be an opportunity for canny buyers in the next 8 weeks to ‘snap up’ a bargain or two, from sellers who have become ‘battle weary’ over the last year or so from the malaise created by the former Chancellor Osborne and his daft Stamp Duty hikes.
You never know, with an increased majority in the Tory Party, the Pound could strengthen against the Dollar and Euro which I suppose may not be good news for our foreign investors who have been lured by cheaper Sterling following the unexpected Referendum result last year. On the other hand, a decisive political outcome will bring enhanced stability, both economically and politically, to the uncertain world surrounding the Brexit negotiations and its ramifications.
I must say that after the turmoil following last years Referendum and the associated prime ministerial changes, I was rather hoping that nothing momentous would happen this year apart from the Local Elections in May, which are a ‘non-event’ from a national, political, prospective – but there it is!
With a positive, electoral outcome May will be emboldened and be better able to ‘fight the good fight’ with a strong mandate to deliver the best possible terms in Europe in the knowledge that the Europhiles and ‘re-moaners’ will be put back where they belong, in their boxes. Is life for her not difficult enough with the prospect of a twelve dimensional negotiation process without the need to constantly ‘look over her shoulder’ for an ambush?
Despite the rhetoric that emerges from the European negotiators there is only one person who can make a meaningful decision and that is Chancellor Merkel since Germany underwrites Europe and the rest of them are merely hollow but vociferous, sycophants.
Switching gears a second, I predicted that there would be a major atrocity in France before the election there and sadly this came to pass. Although ISIS claimed responsibility I feel sure that this has the hallmarks of Putin, since a Le Pen victory in France which would thoroughly disrupt the unity of Europe, would be a major prize for him. Let us not forget the Madrid bombings prior to the 2004 election and its profound effect on the left wing political party who were unexpectedly elected at the time.
As we all know, Mrs. Le Pen is a fierce proponent of immigration controls and has propogated the real possibility of a referendum in France, to ape the British version.
Although it is unlikely that she will be successful in the second round of voting, if the centralist politician, Macon, becomes the new French President, I’m not sure whether France is prepared to pay the price for any reforms that she may propose since the whole of the country will strike. From past experience of this Galic country, the less the president does, the more the French like it and laissez-faire is definitely, ‘the order of the day’.
‘Back at the ranch’: I believe that May will be returned (in June) with a majority of at least 45 and this will serve to be a great endorsement of her political gamble. The feckless Gordon Brown should have called an Election in the autumn 2007 following his ‘coronation’, but didn’t have the courage to do so and look where it got him in the end. If past events are anything to go by, even if as it seems likely, Corbyn suffers an ignominious defeat, he may not even resign at that stage, claiming that the Labour party members have given him an overwhelming authority to lead the party, despite the chaos that will undoubtedly prevail. If the mutterings of Tony Blair in the media are anything go by, I think he fancys himself as the elder statesman of the New Labour centralist movement and despite his chequered record in Iraq, there may be an advisory role for him in the post election New Labour administration that will follow the inevitable ‘drubbing’ that they will receive in the May election.
No one would be better equipped or have the humility to deal with a landslide victory than Mrs. May and well done to her for having the courage of her convictions to call the election even if it involves, for her, a ‘volte face’.