Will the residential property market gain a ‘pass’ or ‘fail’ with the impending school fee debacle?

The German writer Heinrich Heine (1797–1856) presciently stated that Communism ‘…possesses a language which every people can understand – its elements are hunger, envy, and death.’ Sadly, this may come to pass in the General Election, as it’s a racing cert that Mr. Starmer and his merry band of class warriors will occupy No. 10. Once the non-alcoholic beer and vegan sandwiches have been consumed, it’ll be time to give the middle and upper echelons of society a good kicking and prove Heine right.

Nothing sums up the politics of envy like the belligerent and divisive school fees debate. The Labour Party have been threatening to remove independent schools’ charitable status for years and subject them to the dreaded VAT charge. Like extracting only the rotten parts of a scrambled egg or reducing the ‘notes’ in a Mozart sonata, they haven’t even considered how this will affect other charitable institutions. The magic money tree will need to blossom effusively, since the sector turns over nearly £48bn per year and could lead to all manner of legal actions.

Despite the soundbites of the left-wing fanatics, a report by the Independent Schools Council in 2022 found that the private education sector brings the following economic benefits:

  • Schools affiliated to the Independent Schools Council (ISC) made a £14.1 billion contribution to the UK economy, equivalent to the total economic activity in a city the size of Sheffield.
  • In 2022 ISC schools supported around 282,000 jobs across the country, equivalent to the total employed population in a city the size of Liverpool.
  • They bring in £4.3 billion in tax revenues for the UK exchequer, enough to fund the salaries of 115,000 full-time nurses.
  • If these results were scaled up to all independent schools across the UK, the estimated total economic footprint is around £16.5 billion. This amounts to over 328,000 jobs and £5.1 billion in tax revenues.

The study found that independent schools save the taxpayer £4.4 billion every year by providing places for pupils who would otherwise have to take up a place in the state-funded sector. The ISC schools’ share of that total is £3.8 billion.1

Lest we forget, it’s not just oligarchs or the ‘posh’ who use these private schools but hard-pressed parents who sacrifice everything so that their children can reach their full academic potential. As with many misguided plans that are designed to appeal to ‘equality’ and ‘fairness’, the laws of unintended consequences always apply, and it is these vulnerable families who will suffer the most from this distorted utopian ideology.

Abbott outcry

Remember the outcry in 2003 when Labour politician Diane Abbott sent her wayward son James to the independent City of London School, instead of the state comprehensive down the road? Too bad this won’t be an option for her many low-earning constituents. Adding insult to hypocritical injury, she described his superior education as ‘the making of him’. Of course, it was. To want the best for one’s offspring is a natural impulse that cuts across all social classes.

Schools are already preparing themselves to increase their fees in advance of these changes, which renders only the wealthy to afford this privilege.

And what will happen to the displaced students looking for places in the state education system when there’s no spare capacity for them? One reason parents choose an independent school is that class sizes are smaller (never more than 16) as opposed to the state schools which are 62% larger and can be 23-26 pupils. You can imagine what would happen if the sluice gates opened and the displaced private school pupils were to try to join the state system when an extra 609,000 students form a scrum at the school gate. This will be St Trinian’s on steroids!

Even if the will were there to absorb the extra numbers, it takes at least ten years to conceive and implement a new school. Also, the new recruits have to be accommodated within a sensible distance from where they presently live, or else the stressful school run (the bane of many parents’ lives) will turn into Formula 1 crossed with Game of Thrones.

As with many grandiose, politically inspired, socialistic ideas, the Labour Party hasn’t worked out the sums or the methodology yet, despite the problem being lapping at their feet within months.  In our business, we call this self-inflicted flagellation.

Unsettled families may sell

Undoubtedly, this will unsettle families and provoke them to sell their homes in one borough and judiciously purchase in another, to better the chances of getting children educated at somewhere halfway decent. There could be a tremendous rush to sell, which is exactly the wrong strategy for achieving the best possible price. At the moment the residential property market is already under pressure from high energy prices, inflation and the unaffordable cost of borrowing, without this extra baggage.

Areas that still have the remaining 166 grammar schools and/or decent state schools will probably see outrageous demand in unlikely places such as Bromley, Slough, and Medway. Anyone with a savvy eye on the market though, would rent before buying, just to see if it all works out.

Politics – like house prices – is a fickle beast and it’s difficult to predict the effect this will have on underlying values. It looks as if it will impact certain micro-markets, such as the sector between £750,000 –1.5million.

Education, education, education

I speak with some authority on this subject, having been educated at the excellent, former state school, Quintin Grammar in St Johns Wood, and it’s adjoining neighbour, the former Kynaston School, which was an outstanding secondary modern.

There was a good exchange of students between schools after the eleven plus – the curriculum extended across academic and vocational subjects and catered for all flavours of pupils. The system worked magnificently with a high standard of discipline throughout the ranks, and both respective schools produced remarkable results.

This halcyon period came abruptly to an end in 1969 when they were merged into a fully comprehensive school. The name was changed to QK, and discipline was replaced with ’empathy’ and standards nosedived. The headmaster was beaten up and one of the teachers ran off with the money accumulated for the school trip. The ‘star pupil’ was none other than infamous Jihadi John (Mohamed Emwazi), one of the terrorist ‘Beatles’. The school’s name was changed to Harris Academy, which is faintly reminiscent of  ‘putting lipstick on a pig!’ and it was put into special measures in 2017 (an unenviable indictment).  Why allow political dogma and the politics of envy to disturb the equilibrium of the education system which is the wealth of the nation?

Do we ever learn? ‘Change’ for change’s sake, is a popular left-liberal nostrum which invariably does not lead to better results. Whilst I admit that the Tory’s have not covered themselves in glory, the VAT issue may well lead to an academic ‘fail’ for the country rather than an ‘A star grade’.

Don’t say you haven’t been warned.

1 www.isc.co.uk/research/independent-schools-economic-impact-report/