Q: Why does it appear as though the Prime Minister and Chancellor are \u2018fighting for their lives\u2019 and seem to be going to ludicrous measures to \u2018drum home\u2019 the Remain case, even as far as bringing up the spectre of a \u2018European War\u2019 if Brexit wins?<\/p>\n
A: Their jobs and reputations rest squarely on winning the Referendum. They would both suffer a premature and ignominious end to their illustrious careers if the result goes against them, since they have been planning this campaign for more than a year or so and it is now more to do with this, than whether the UK will be better off inside the EU.<\/p>\n
Q: \u00a0The Prime Minister and Chancellor are now extolling the imaginary horrors of Brexit, but not four months ago – whilst they were negotiating the terms with Brussels, they seemed ambivalent about the matter. \u00a0What has changed in the interim?<\/p>\n
A: \u00a0Absolutely nothing, but it does show you how their arguments follow the \u2018hills and dales\u2019 of judicious rhetoric, almost comically, as we move towards the date. \u00a0We all know their ulterior motives and the question must be whether you believe them. \u00a0I must confess that there is a palpable air of desperation in their strategy, which must tell you something i.e. in private polling, the Brexit poll is in the ascendancy.<\/p>\n
Q: You don\u2019t have to be a \u2018rocket scientist\u2019 to work out that the Terms offered by Brussels to the UK are lackluster at best and meaningless at worst. It must be an illustration of the obduracy of the EU hierarchy, that they would risk our leaving rather than offer us more appealing terms. \u00a0The question must be, Why didn\u2019t the Prime Minister \u2018come clean\u2019 with the \u2018Great British Electorate\u2019 and concede that the deal offered by the EU is inadequate, but that he would leave the decision to the them at the Referendum? \u00a0This way, he would be the \u2018jolly good fellow\u2019 regardless of the outcome.<\/p>\n
A: \u2018Like it or lump it\u2019 all incumbent governments have to be seen to support the status quo. \u00a0Even arch Euro sceptics such as, Margaret Thatcher and John Major, did so, begrudgingly, with the Maastricht Treaty and the ERM etc., however inane this must have been for them, at the time.<\/p>\n
Q: Would inflation increase, house prices drop and the economy slow down after Brexit?<\/p>\n
A: Absolutely not. \u00a0There are no capacity issues in the system that would give rise to inflation, particularly with food prices dropping and oil at an unprecedented low. \u00a0Yes, the Pound will probably fall against the Dollar, but it will remain in parity with the Euro, as both currencies will be temporarily affected by the Brexit result. Since a good deal of our goods are imported from the EU, this will not have an appreciable inflationary affect.<\/p>\n
Property prices above \u00a31million are falling now, as activity slows under the heavy burden of the following; Stamp Duty, Buy-to-Let and Nom Dom fiscal changes, the latter of which has caused an exodus of wealth creators and this has been the case for the last 18 months. There are very few International buyers at the moment, looking for property in London.<\/p>\n
Values up to \u00a31million, that have been rising due to the pre-election Stamp Duty \u2018give-away\u2019 in 2014, are now also slowing after the April \u2018Buy-to-Let\u2019 tax watershed. This has been of no help to the moribund first time buyer who has been caught between the \u2018devil and deep blue sea\u2019, by the rising property prices in sales and rentals markets.<\/p>\n
The economy has been slowing now for the last year, with unemployment rising and whilst this is partly due to the world economic circumstances, it is not assisted by the four month hiatus before the Referendum, which was of the government\u2019s choosing, \u2018heavens knows why\u2019. \u00a0The draconian property taxes imposed by the Chancellor have now started to infect retail spending trends and its predictable influence on the consumer led economy. The budget deficit seems to be intractable as the economy stalls and tax receipts wane. How on earth is the Chancellor going to meet his strict budgetary targets for deficit reduction by 2020, when he is hamstrung by his own manifesto tax commitments and a failing economy? Maybe it won\u2019t be his responsibility in a few months\u2019 time?<\/p>\n
Q: Will the likelihood of War be greater with Brexit?<\/p>\n
A: I have never heard such a load of \u2018tosh\u2019 in all my life. We are the 4th largest military power in the world and one of five members of the UN Council. The EU has no conspicuous President to speak of and does not think or function as one coherent continent and has been ambivalent, at best, to the conflicts on its doorstep, relying instead on the military initiatives of individual European members or NATO to solve the problems i.e. the fiasco in the Ukraine and the Balkans for example.<\/p>\n
As under-resourced as the UN\/NATO may be, they are the only bodies willing to globally intervene or negotiate any conflict on behalf of western nations and together with the US, this is what has kept Europe safe. \u00a0Cameron made this quite clear when he refused to attend the ceremony for the EU to accept the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012. If we have to leave peace to the EU, then we are certainly all in trouble.<\/p>\n
In any event, why should Germany create a third World War when they have got it so good?<\/p>\n
Yes, it is true that the six founding nations of Europe after the WWII wanted a commercial solution for a political imperative and they will certainly have one with a Federal Europe.<\/p>\n
In the last war, in order to fulfill Hitler\u2019s ambitions of hegemony, his idea was to \u2018crush\u2019 the Armies of each European country, but today\u2019s Germany is far more discreet, since controlling the Treasuries of these countries achieves the same end goal, but avoids a war and therefore does not attract bad press.<\/p>\n
The Euro is de facto a devalued Deutsche Mark, which allows Germany to export their goods at lower prices, to an ever-increasing basket of European consumers which has contributed to make them the second biggest exporters in the world today.<\/p>\n
Q: Would the City of London abdicate its dominant position in the world to Frankfurt or Paris in terms of financial services?<\/p>\n
A: London has been an emerging global force for financial services since the early beginnings of the coffee houses and early banks of the 17th Century and today it has emerged as the \u2018Greatest City on Earth\u2019. With Thatcher\u2019s deregulation and reforms In the 80s, the Capital began its long march towards its pivotal financial status today, as many more IPO’s today take place here, than the former bastion of finance, New York.<\/p>\n
London’s ability to reinvent itself, embrace change and new technology is unique and this is why today it is the financial fulcrum of the world and will remain so. Even Britain\u2019s biggest bank, HSBC, has decided to keep its headquarters in the Capital, rather than moving to Hong Kong even before the Referendum result is known and this must act as a further endorsement for London.<\/p>\n
Not only is the Capital \u2018teeming\u2019 with financial activity, but somewhat uniquely, all the centres of excellence of most industries are conveniently located in one place. Besides anything else, it is steeped in history and heritage and today represents \u2018the happening place\u2019 for culture, couture, cuisine, technology and it is where residents want to be, by choice, not necessarily by the confines of their jobs.<\/p>\n
Has anyone been to Frankfurt recently? \u00a0Is it really conceivable that this sterile, soulless city would replace London as the financial hub? I don’t think so! Paris may be a fabulous souvenir City, steeped in history, but hardly an International Financial hub.<\/p>\n
The voices of disquiet which are now trying to propagate \u2018Operation Fear\u2019, are the same ones that told us that we had to be in the ERM and subsequently to join the Euro in order to counterbalance the \u2018mighty Dollar\u2019 and the emerging \u2018Renminbi. They deluged us with arguments that it was a \u2018global play\u2019 and we should not think like \u2018Little Englanders\u2019 anymore. Thankfully, we ignored them then, and we should ignore them now.<\/p>\n
We can thank the Head of the Bundesbank in 1992, whose mischievous comments about our unsustainable position in the ERM, within minutes, led to our devaluation which, paradoxically, was the best thing that ever happened to the UK. This is what you call European solidarity?<\/p>\n
The reason why big business is for the Remain vote is that they can negotiate with one large bureaucratic body, but this is certainly not the case for small businesses in the UK, which make up 95% of industry.<\/p>\n
Q: \u00a042% of our exports go to Europe, how will this be affected by a Brexit?<\/p>\n
A: \u2018In a nutshell\u2019, we import far more goods from Europe than we export to them, hence our outlandish current account deficit. Indeed, the UK is the second biggest importer of German goods in the world. It would, therefore, be inconceivable that with Europe desperate to \u2018claw its way\u2019 out of recession themselves, it would deliberately impose tariffs on their goods exported to the UK. \u00a0It is also a nonsense that they would \u2018try and teach the UK a lesson\u2019 by putting their economies at risk and by delaying trade agreements with us. \u00a0In any event, we don\u2019t need trade agreements to trade. The European economic model is far from a \u2018paragon of virtue\u2019. Collectively, their economies have not grown since 2006 and their employment rate is double that of ours. \u00a0You could say, that they should model themselves on us, rather than the other way around.<\/p>\n
Is it not perfectly conceivable that after Brexit, the EU Trade Delegation will ask whether we would be prepared to go back to our electorate with a second Referendum, on far more beneficial terms? \u00a0Let\u2019s be real here, they have a lot to lose (let alone us) by the absence of the second largest economy in Europe leaving \u2018The Club\u2019 after Brexit and this will be very damaging to their economic model and financial credibility.<\/p>\n
Q: Migration and control of our Borders post Brexit.<\/p>\n
A: The free passage of European citizens across Europe is fundamental to the political imperative that \u2018lies at the heart\u2019 of the EU model. \u00a0In theory, it was conceived by bureaucrats and had no capacity to cope with the influx of millions of refugees from say, Syria, Iraq, Libya etc.<\/p>\n
The Turkish President Erdo\u011fan, is a self-styled autocrat, who wants his dynasty to control Turkey – I wish the EU well in getting him \u2018to toe the line\u2019. \u00a0The country has done very well outside of the EU to date, but still \u2018nurses\u2019 an ambition to join \u2018The Club\u2019 and at present is trying to \u2018bully\u2019 its way in. \u00a0This effectively means that the welfare systems of the richer northern European countries (certainly within the Schengen Area), will come under further strain from some of the 77million Turks, Kurds and refugees who will then have free passage across the European continent.<\/p>\n
The greatest windfall from Brexit is that we will have absolute and total control of our borders. \u00a0We are an \u2018island nation\u2019 and we should model ourselves on the Australian points system and then we will know exactly who and how many migrants enter the country at any one time. The Schengen Area is designed as a precursor to Federal Europe which we are not interested in, nor is relevant to us.<\/p>\n
Q: \u00a0How will we influence a \u2018reformed\u2019 Europe if we Remain?<\/p>\n
A: There will be no reforming of Europe. The model is \u2018cast in stone\u2019 and the DNA will never change – no matter how hard we argue to the contrary. France, for instance, is mired in the past and is totally resistant to change and any French President who tries to reform this socialist country, and its Institutions, will never be elected again.<\/p>\n
There are now 28 countries on a one-member, one-vote basis. Does anyone in their \u2018right mind\u2019 think that one more vote, either way, makes any difference to the decision making process in Brussels? \u00a0Europe needs to Federalise, since this will provide the Euro with two vital components to sustain its long-term viability i.e. control over spending\/taxation and a lender of the last resort. \u00a0At our own volition, we want to be excluded from this process, so we will be specifically shutout from any discussions which take place on this subject and therefore, be in the worst of all worlds \u2013 in but out.<\/p>\n
All the Financial Institutions told us that by joining the Euro, we would be \u2018world players\u2019 in the global market and we studiously ignored them. \u00a0If Gordon Brown did one good thing as Chancellor, it was to keep out of the Euro. \u00a0It was the best thing we ever did.<\/p>\n
Q: \u00a0Why are a number of leaders of industry, big political \u2018beasts\u2019 and even the American President being so pro Europe?<\/p>\n
A: The Prime Minister and Chancellor are so anxious to win this Referendum, that for the past year they have thought of nothing else. \u00a0They seem to be exchanging favours with anyone who can be coerced into either joining \u2018Operation Fear\u2019 or in the hope that they support the Remain vote. \u00a0For instance, by demonising Donald Trump, however imprudent this may have been, the Prime Minister, \u2018Call me Dave\u2019, was trying to assist the US Democratic cause and as such, Obama repaid the favour by supporting the Remain issue, whilst on the \u2018last lap\u2019 of his European tour. He even \u2018dusted off\u2019 the last six US treasury secretaries to endorse this view. The tactic backfired, since the UK electorate does not like to be bullied and rightly so.<\/p>\n
Q: Did it not seem odd that at a premature stage of the Electoral cycle, the Chancellor, in the last Autumn Statement, supposedly found \u00a327billion of debt servicing cost savings, which he used as tax-giveaways to avoid the Tax Credit problem? \u00a0Surely, prudence dictates that when you are more certain of the deficit reduction programme later on in the electoral cycle, you would then be able to release these provisions, closer to the General Election so that your shop window looks as good as it can be at the critical time. Why the unedifying volte-face on Pension Reforms, Invalidity Benefits and Academy schools in the last Budget?<\/p>\n
A: Both the Prime Minister and Chancellor could not afford either a Tory backbench revolt or an irritated electorate ahead of the Referendum vote and this explains the importance of winning this argument, no matter what the cost. The slogan \u2018Desperate Dave\u2019 seems to resonate.<\/p>\n
Q: Why should the European Court of Justice \u2018reign supreme\u2019 over our August judicial system?<\/p>\n
A: The temerity and arrogance of the EU is breath taking here. \u00a0The august UK Judicial system, which is adopted by many \u2018far flung\u2019 countries of the world and is the basis of all maritime law, is one of the longest established, most respected and fair systems in the world. \u00a0How could anyone question its partiality or efficacy? \u00a0What possible purpose could be served by establishing the European Court of Justice with supremacy over it?<\/p>\n
Q: Will the UK be safer if we remain in Europe?<\/p>\n
A: We are the forth largest military nation in the world and have one of the most sophisticated Intelligence networks. We deign to share confidential information with certain European countries (and not with others, we don\u2019t trust) at our option. \u00a0It is the security of the European nation which will suffer by the UK leaving Europe, not the other way around. \u00a0Often the European Courts of Justice have prevented potential terrorists from being extradited to the UK for interrogation and questioning and this has interfered with our ability to seek justice and protect our citizens. The UK is therefore less safe, in Europe, than out.<\/p>\n
A few things for you to think about:<\/p>\n
. \u00a0\u00a0Why should we apologise and is it not natural and healthy for a Democracy to want to live under its own laws? \u00a0After all, we are the fifth largest economy on the planet and the second largest in Europe and how significant need we be to have the confidence to raise our eyes to more distant horizons and rediscover our own global vocation, that we once took so much for granted?<\/p>\n
All in all, I believe that a vote for Brexit would be a great day for liberty and for free markets, a bit like that achieved by Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s.\u00a0 I have no doubt that the 364 economists who signed the letter to The Times<\/em> in 1981 condemning her macroeconomic policies would have sided with \u2018Remain\u2019.\u00a0 Two years after that letter was sent, the markets \u2018bottomed\u2019 in April 1983 and UK equities entered a structural boom.\u00a0 To summarise, if Brexit materializes, there will be dislocation, but it will offer an immense opportunity for those willing to take risks and extend the duration of their views.\u00a0 \u2018The end of horror is always better that a horror without an end\u2019, runs the German saying.\u00a0 By contrast, if Remain wins, the British caravan will maintain its slow crawl into Europe\u2019s \u2018death valley\u2019 and the participants would do well to remember Dante\u2019s invocation on the gates of The Inferno<\/em> \u2018Abandon all hope, ye who enter here\u2019.<\/p>\n \u2018Till we have built Jerusalem in England’s green and pleasant land.\u2019<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Similar posts: <\/p>\n \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Q: Why does it appear as though the Prime Minister and Chancellor are \u2018fighting for their lives\u2019 and seem to be going to ludicrous measures to \u2018drum home\u2019 the Remain case, even as far as bringing up the spectre of … Continue reading
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